麻省理工大咖在线研讨会：新冠病毒对供应链的影响

3月5日 北京时间11:00 PM , 与宁波（中国）供应链创新学院（宁创）名誉院长、麻省理工学院讲席教授尤西·谢菲（Yossi·Sheffi）远程面对面，听他谈谈新型冠状病毒对供应链的影响这个话题。

访谈上，麻省理工学院微硕士动态供应链课程老大Alexis Bateman将会采访麻省理工学院教授Yossi Sheffi，共同探讨COVID-19冠状病毒的爆发可能导致的一些供应链影响。

除了短期影响分析以外，谢菲教授还将解答在不久的将来，此次病毒会有什么样的影响。届时，他将会分享一项正在进行的调研及其成果，调研分析了企业的供应链是如何受到影响的，以及此刻决策者们正在对此做什么。根据这些结果，谢菲教授将建议企业近期应如何应对，以及这对未来的干扰意味着什么。会后，在线参与听众也会有一个简短的机会向谢菲教授提问。

本次主要议题如下：

• 对供应链的破坏有七个方面

• 事件影响可参考关键——西班牙流感

• 接下来一段时间会发生什么？

• 当下应当采取哪些行动？

• 大家所在的公司都是如何应对的？

• 什么类型的公司最容易受到危机的影响？

• 对政府反应的看法？

• 对供应链专业人士有什么建议？

• 还会影响多久？

• 对你的日常工作影响有多大？

• 公司现在可以做什么以更好地适应未来？

• 你如何看待反全球化在近期和未来的演变或发展？

• 会改变你公司未来在供应链中的运作方式吗？

• 这场危机是否会为某些行业带来机遇？

• 为什么供应链对此反应如此之晚？

• 缺货时如何处理客户关系？

• 这种影响如何突出了供应链专业人员的作用？

01、开场白

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

Welcome, everyone.

欢迎大家。

Thanks for joining today.

感谢您今天加入。

My name is Alexis Bateman, and I'm a research scientist here at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics.

我叫Alexis Bateman，我是这里在麻省理工学院的运输与物流中心的研究科学家

And I also direct our Sustainable Supply Chains Initiative.

我还指导我们的可持续供应链计划

Today, we're super fortunate to have MIT professor Yossi Sheffi with us, a highly regarded expert in all things supply chain, but especially in risk and resilience.

今天，我们非常幸运有MIT教授Yossi Sheffi与我们一起，一位备受推崇的专家在所有供应链中，尤其是风险和应变能力。

And he's written several books on the topic, including The Resilient Enterprise and The Power of Resilience via MIT Press.

他写了几本有关该主题的书， 包括弹性企业和力量通过麻省理工学院出版社。

And through this whole ordeal of coronavirus, he's been in close contact with our MIT CTL partners regarding their reactions to the spread of coronavirus.

通过整个XXvirus的考验， 他一直与我们的MIT CTL保持密切联系合作伙伴关于他们的反应到XXvirus的传播。

Yossi, thanks for making the time for us today.

Yossi，感谢您为我们今天抽出宝贵的时间。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Thank you for doing this.

YOSSI SHEFFI：谢谢您这样做。

It's a good idea.

是个好主意。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

So for about the next 30 minutes,

因此，在接下来的30分钟内，

we're going to explore with Yossi the supply chain impacts caused by COVID-19 coronavirus.

我们将与Yossi一起探讨由XXvirus引起的供应链影响

And at the end of this discussion,

在讨论的最后，

we will have a really short amount of time for questions.

我们将有很短的时间来提问。

So if you guys are thinking about some questions, please save them and post them in the Q&A forum.

所以，如果你们正在考虑一些问题，请保存它们并将它们发布在“问答”论坛中。

And we'll try to get to as many as we can.

而且，我们将尽力做到尽可能多。

Please use the Webinar Q&A feature to ask those questions.

请使用网络研讨会问答功能询问这些问题。

Be sure to be logged in with a name.

确保使用名称登录。

We're not going to be reading any questions from anonymous users.

我们不会阅读任何问题来自匿名用户。

And also, throughout this discussion,we're going to be running some polls.

而且，在整个讨论中，我们将进行一些民意调查。

So please take a minute to fill them out

所以请花一点时间填写

so you'll be able to see real-time results about how other supply chain professionals are being impacted by coronavirus, and we'll be able to learn more about everyone on the webinar today.

因此，您将能够看到其他供应链专业人员如何受到XXvirus影响的实时结果，我们将能够在今天的网络研讨会上了解更多关于每个人的信息。。

So watch out for those as we go along.

因此，请注意我们的前进方向。

All right, so let's dive right in.

好吧，让我们开始吧。

02、对供应链的破坏有七个方面

So on February 18th, you wrote in the Wall Street Journal that previous disruptive events, like SARS or Fukushima,were not a really good yardstick for this epidemic.

所以在2月18日，你在《华尔街日报》上写道，以前的破坏性事件，如非典或福岛，并不是衡量这种流行病的真正标准。

Professor Sheffi, can you tell us a little about this disruption, and what makes it so different from others?

Sheffi教授，你能告诉我们一些关于这种破坏的情况吗？是什么使它与其他人如此不同？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Sure.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的。

The coronavirus disruption is different in seven aspects.

XXvirus的破坏在七个方面有所不同。

First of all, unlike, say, Fukushima or the Thailand floods or several hurricanes, it affects both supply and demand.

首先，不像福岛或泰国洪水或几场飓风，它会同时影响供求双方。

It's not only that supply in China is being affected, it affects demand in China, of course, and worldwide.

不仅是中国的供应受到影响， 当然，它影响着中国乃至全球的需求。

Right now, we see demand in China is being affected.

目前，我们看到中国的需求正在受到影响。

Several retail stores closing.

几家零售店关门。

Lots of activities are being contained.

许多活动停滞中。

So we see the whole economic activity in China going down.

因此，我们看到中国的整个经济活动正在下降。

Now we see it in South Korea, we see it in northern Italy, other European countries.

现在我们在韩国看到了，也在意大利北部和其他欧洲国家看到了。

We start seeing it in the United States.

我们开始在美国看到它。

So we have the problem with the supply that started in Wuhan in China.

所以我们有供应上的问题始于中国WH。

Factory closing, workers cannot come back from the new year.

工厂关闭，新年后工人不能回来工作。

Migration, when they all go home, go back to the factories.

移民，当他们都回家后，回到工厂。

So we had-- we still are feeling the impact, and we will start feeling it in two, three, four weeks.

因此，我们曾经-我们仍在感受到影响， 我们将在两，三，四个星期内开始感受到它。

The impact will crest in the United States and Europe,and can explain why is this timing like that.

这种影响将波及美国和欧洲， 并可以解释为什么会这样

But so we have the fear of the virus, which impacted demand.

但是我们担心这种病毒会影响需求。

And this will be, at the end of the day, my feeling is this will be bigger than even the supply event.

最终，我的感觉是，这将是比供应事件更严重。

And add to this the fact that we don't know many things about the virus still.

除此之外，我们并不了解关于病毒的很多事情。

Not only there is nothing to fight it,nothing even to help people who are sick.

不仅没有什么可以抗争，甚至没有什么可以帮助病人

It's not clear how to treat them.

目前尚不清楚如何治疗它们。

So there's a fear going on that impacts economic activity.

因此，人们担心会影响经济活动。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

That's super interesting.

太有趣了。

Thanks.

谢谢。

03、事件影响可参考框架——西班牙流感

So in late January, you actually-- right after this broke out, you surveyed some of our MIT CTL partners and constituents regarding some of the actions they were taking, if any, in reaction to the spread of the virus.

所以在一月底，你事实上——就在这件事发生之后，你调查了我们麻省理工学院CTL的一些合作伙伴和组成部分，关于他们在应对virus传播时所采取的一些行动，如果有的话。

And at the time, the total reported infections were only 8,000, and mostly in China.

当时，报告的总数感染人数仅为8,000，其中大部分在中国。

And before we get into the question,I wanted to launch a poll, if you guys are able to fill that out, and then we'll be looking at those results in real time.

在我们讨论这个问题之前， 我想发起一项民意调查，如果你们能够填补这一点，然后我们将实时查看这些结果。

And so while we wait for people to fill out their--how they feel impacted, can you tell us anything about what you observed, you know, now almost a month ago about that initial survey,when the pandemic was still fairly contained,and how it's transitioned to now?

所以，当我们等待人们填写他们的——他们感受到的影响时，你能告诉我们关于你观察到的，你知道，现在差不多一个月前，关于最初的调查，当时的流行病仍然得到了很好的控制，以及它是如何过渡到现在的吗？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Yeah.

YOSSI SHEFFI：是的。

A month ago, I got a lot of pushback when I said that this disruption should not be compared to SARS or Fukushima or Thailand.

一个月前，当我说这种干扰不应该与非典、福岛和泰国相比时，我受到了很大的回击。

It should best be compared to a point of reference that I could see.

最好把它与我能看到的一个参照点相比较。

The first one was the 1918 so-called Spanish influenza.

第一个是1918年所谓的西班牙流感。

That was enormous. It had actually very low mortality rate,

那是巨大的。实际上死亡率很低

but hundreds of millions of people were affected,

但是有数亿人受到影响，

and there were between 50 and 70 million people died worldwide.

全世界有5000至7000万人死亡。

That's one frame of reference.

这是一个参考框架。

Now we have better health care, we better understand how to deal with pandemics, but one has to keep an eye on this.

现在我们有了更好的医疗保健，我们更好地了解了如何应对大流行，但必须留意这一点。

The other one is the 2008 economic downturn,because one can still expect a significant economic downturn as a result of the virus.

另一个是2008年的经济衰退， 因为人们仍然可以预见经济将出现严重下滑由于该virus。

We saw the plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial

我们看到了道琼斯指数的暴跌

Average and other stock average across the world.

全球平均水平和其他库存平均水平。

It's actually down today, after going up yesterday,

今天实际上是下降的，昨天上升之后，

because of, in part, because of the US elections.

部分原因是由于美国大选。

But as we speak, the Dow Jones Industrial Average

但是正如我们所说的那样，道琼斯工业平均指数

is significantly down.

明显下降。

And I expect it to continue going down in the coming days.

而且我希望它在未来几天内会继续下降。

We can talk about the timing now or later.

我们可以谈论现在或以后的时间。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Sure, yeah.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，是的。

Why don't we talk about the timing a little bit now?

为什么我们现在不谈论时间呢？

04、接下来一段时间会发生什么亡羊补牢，为时未晚

YOSSI SHEFFI: So if you remember about the epidemic was starting to get the first factory closures outside of China was in Japan and South Korea.

YOSSI SHEFFI：所以，如果你还记得疫情开始蔓延，中国以外的第一家工厂关闭是在日本和韩国。

In Japan, Nissan was closing factories in Japan,

日产在日本关闭了日本的工厂，

and Hyundai was closing factories in South Korea.

现代汽车正在韩国关闭工厂。

Now, those factories are between a week and two weeks away from the centers of manufacturing in China.

现在，这些工厂离中国的制造业中心只有一到两周的路程。

We are six to eight weeks away as the ship goes between a manufacturing center in China and the United States.

我们还有6到8周的时间，因为这艘船要经过中国和美国的一个制造中心

Add to it some of the slowness of the transportation system in China right now, which is subject to a lot of audits

加上一些运输系统的缓慢目前在中国，这需要进行大量审核

and checks, and not--movement that is impeded, in many ways.

和检查，而不是- 在许多方面受到阻碍的运动。

And if you do the calculation, you expect, between mid March

如果您进行计算，您预计会在三月中旬之间

and beginning of April, US factories, European factories will start having shortages of parts.

在四月初，美国工厂，欧洲工厂将开始缺少零件。

Of course, it's not as disconcerting

当然，这并不令人不安

if we would build less cars, aside from the fact that it will have employment ramification.

如果我们能少造汽车，除了它会产生就业的影响之外。

What is most disconcerting is that we may not have enough pharmaceuticals.

最令人不安的是，我们可能不会有足够的药品。

A lot of pharmaceutical companies,

很多制药公司

not always the finished product, are made in China.

并非总是成品是中国制造的。

And this will impact both Europe and the United States.

这将影响欧洲和美国。

And this is something that people are now starting to realize how dependent the West is on intermediate material made in China.

这就是人们现在所需要的开始意识到西方有多依赖关于中国制造的中间材料。

All of this will start creating even more fear and more panic,

所有这一切将开始引起更多的恐惧和更多的恐慌，

and we will see--

我们会看到-

I expect the market to keep going down,

我预计市场将继续下跌，

and expect to see a lot of unpleasant ramifications

并期望看到很多不愉快的后果

in the coming weeks and months.

在接下来的几周和几个月内。

05、当下应当采取哪些行动？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Some sobering information there.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：那里有一些令人震惊的信息。

So actually on Bloomberg, you were interviewed

所以实际上在彭博社，您接受了采访

at the end of February, and you advised some companies should

在二月底，您建议一些公司应该

be taking more action.

采取更多行动。

Can you talk about some of those actions

你能谈谈其中一些行动吗

that you suggest for the companies being impacted?

您对受影响的公司有何建议？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Well, it's nice to talk to people in the supply chain field because you guys understand the bullwhip effect.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很高兴和供应链领域的人交谈，因为你们了解牛鞭效应

And I was talking about the bullwhip effect,

我在谈论牛鞭效应，

because what happened--just a reminder to our audience.

因为发生了什么事，只是提醒我们的听众。

Let's say a retailer looks at the forecast

假设有一家零售商查看了该预测

and sees reduction in actual, you know, customer demandby x percent.

并且看到实际的客户需求减少 x％。

Let's say 10%.

假设是10％。

It's x percent reduction.

减少了x％。

Now, they look to the future and say

现在，他们展望未来并说

customers are reducing demand by 10%,

客户正在将需求减少10％，

by x percent, so we should reduce order by x percent.

减少x％，因此我们应将订单减少x％。

But on top of it, we also have inventory that we ordered

但最重要的是，我们还订购了库存

based on previous forecasts.

根据先前的预测。

So we have too much inventory.

因此我们库存过多。

Because of these two factors, we're

由于这两个因素，我们

going to decrease the order to our wholesaler

将减少向批发商的订单

not by x percent, by 2x percent.

不是x的百分比，而是2的百分比。

Not by 10%, by maybe 20%.

不是10％，可能是20％。

The wholesaler has exactly the same thing.

批发商完全一样。

He sees 2x reduction in its orders.

他认为订单减少了2倍。

It thinks it will continue.

它认为它将继续下去。

It has too much inventory.

库存过多。

So it looks to a manufacturer, and cuts its order by 3x or 4x.

因此，它寻求制造商，并将其订单减少3倍或4倍。

And it goes upstream in the supply chain.

它在供应链的上游。

The people who are most vulnerable,

最脆弱的人

the company that are most vulnerable, and the company is upstream in the supply chain.

最脆弱的公司，公司在供应链的上游。

In many cases, these are small suppliers

在很多情况下，这些都是小型供应商

who do not have the wherewithal to with stand such reduction in order.

他们没有足够的钱来承受这样的减少。

We just saw today the first European airline--

今天我们看到了第一家欧洲航空公司

obviously a small airline in Britain, Flybe--

显然是英国的一家小型航空公司Flybe--

just went out of business.

刚倒闭

This is the first thing.

这是第一件事。

So just think about what's happening in the airline industry.

所以想想航空业发生了什么。

Flights are down significantly.

航班大幅下降。

Airlines are flying empty, or not flying at all, which means all the people who serve them--the people who prepare the meals, the people who move the gasoline around--all of these people are now having less work.

航空公司都是空的，或者根本不飞，这意味着所有为他们服务的人——准备饭菜的人，到处运送汽油的人——所有这些人现在都少了工作。

The people who supply to them, the people who make the cardboard for the meals on flight, three levels up in the supply chain are now having significant less orders.

向他们供货的人，为飞机上的饭菜做纸板的人，供应链上三个层次的人，现在的订单明显减少了

It comes up to small suppliers at the end.

最终由小型供应商决定。

And by the way, let's talk a little bit

顺便说一下

about what governments and companies can do.

关于政府和公司可以做什么。

Companies who went through the 2008 downturn

经历了2008年低迷的公司

realized their dependency on suppliers.

意识到他们对供应商的依赖。

And in 2008, many companies extended their own credit

并且在2008年，许多公司扩大了自己的信誉

to their suppliers, even invested in suppliers, in order

给他们的供应商，甚至投资于供应商

to make sure that they'll be viable.

确保它们将是可行的。

Because without parts and the material coming up through out the supply chain,

因为没有零件，整个材料都堆积起来贯穿供应链，

they cannot assemble and build their own product.

他们无法组装和建立自己的产品。

So a lot of manufacturers, from Intel

来自英特尔的众多制造商

to Toyota to Procter&Gamble, were aware of this.

到丰田去宝洁，都意识到了这一点。

Governments are also aware of this.

各国政府也意识到这一点。

The Chinese government just announced--

中国政府刚刚宣布-

well, just-- a week ago announced

好吧，就在一周前宣布

that the state bank have to lend to small businesses,

国家银行必须贷款给小企业，

and they reduced the taxes on small businesses.

他们减少了对小企业的税收。

The government of Germany and Holland changed the labor law.

德国和荷兰政府修改了劳动法。

Now you can go on part-time and still collect unemployment.

现在您可以兼职，仍然可以失业。

So people can go on 50%, and for the 50% that they don't work,

因此人们可以继续工作50％，而对于50％不能工作的人，

the government will pay 70% of that.

政府将支付其中的70％。

So governments are getting ready for a downturn.

因此，各国政府已为经济下滑做好准备。

This is much better than 2008, when governments

这比2008年要好得多，当时政府

were caught unprepared.

措手不及。

Government now know what to do about this,

政府现在知道该怎么办，

and start helping the vulnerable part of the economy.

并开始帮助经济中的弱势群体。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

Thank you, Yossi.

谢谢你，尤西。

That's really insightful.

那真的很有见地。

06、大家所在的公司都是如何应对的？

Before we get to the next question,

在我们开始下一个问题之前，

let's look at the poll results that everyone filled out.

让我们看看每个人填写的民意调查结果。

And so the question was, how is your company or organization reacting to the coronavirus?

所以问题是，你的公司或组织对XXvirus的反应如何？

So the biggest impact was grounding all nonessential travel.

因此，最大的影响是停止所有不必要的旅行。

So over 50% of you said that was one of the primary actions.

因此，你们中超过50％的人说这是主要行动之一。

Other high data points were setting up an emergency management center, at 38%.

其他高数据点正在设置紧急情况管理中心，占38％。

33% of you said creating a customer product priority plan.

你们中有33％的人表示创建客户产品优先级计划。

29%, setting up a clear line of communication to government and regulatory agencies.

29％，与政府和监管机构建立清晰的沟通渠道。

And the next highest one would be

第二高的是

consulting with local contacts in areas of outbreaks.

与爆发地区的当地联系人进行协商。

And so all relevant impacts.

等等所有相关影响。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Makes sense.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很有道理。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Yeah, absolutely.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：是的，绝对如此。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Makes sense.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很有道理。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right, so let's go to the next.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，让我们转到下一个。

07、什么类型的公司最容易受到危机的影响？

So based on these results and what

那么根据这些结果以及

you've been hearing from your contacts, what type

您一直在从您的联系人那里听到，什么类型

of companies are most vulnerable to the crisis?

的公司最容易受到危机的影响？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Well, we just talked about it.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，我们刚才谈到了。

Obviously, look, we can go over some industries.

显然，我们可以研究一些行业。

Certainly the airline industry is being hit hard.

当然，航空业正遭受重创。

The whole-- anything related to tourism is being hit very hard.

总体而言，与旅游有关的任何事情都受到严重打击。

Hotels.

酒店。

Anything related to conferences.

与会议有关的任何内容。

All gathering.

所有聚会。

I'm watching one of the countries that

我正在看其中一个国家

has probably the best health care system and the best IT

可能拥有最好的医疗保健系统和最好的IT

is Israel.

是以色列。

And they just had the big soccer game

他们刚刚参加了大型足球比赛

that was played in front of an empty stadium.

那是在一个空荡荡的体育场前演奏的。

There were pictures of this in the Israeli newspaper.

以色列报纸上有此图片。

So the entire-- you know, anything related to tourism

所以整个-与旅游相关的任何事情

is going to be hit hard.

将受到重创。

Manufacturers that depend on China are, as I said,

正如我所说，依赖中国的制造商是

will be hit in two or three or four weeks,

将在两三个，三个或四个星期内被击中，

will see shortages of parts coming.

将会看到零件短缺。

Already, by the way, if you order computer

顺便说一句，如果您订购计算机

from your favorite suppliers, be it Dell or HP or somebody else,

来自您最喜欢的供应商，无论是戴尔，惠普还是其他人，

you will find out that you don't get everything right away.

您会发现自己无法立即获得所有收益。

A lot of stuff they give you, it will

他们给你很多东西，它将

be available in a month or two, or sometimes

一两个月内即可使用，有时

they don't even know when it will be available.

他们甚至不知道什么时候可用。

So we look at manufacturing.

因此，我们来看制造业。

Insurance industry.

保险业。

Insurance, depending on how this is developed, because usually

保险，取决于如何发展，因为通常

the insurance industry doesn't pay for it

保险业不为此付费

when demand goes down.

当需求下降时。

It's considered business as usual.

它被视为照常营业。

And furthermore, the insurance industry

而且，保险业

may decide that this is so-called force majeure.

可能会决定这是所谓的不可抗力。

They don't have to pay.

他们不必付款。

It something outside the normal business.

它超出正常业务范围。

So I don't see the insurance industry paying.

因此，我认为保险业不会为此付出代价。

Finance industry, banking and so forth

金融业，银行业等

are going to be hit because, first of all,

将会受到打击，因为首先

we see immediately that their interests are going down,

我们立即看到他们的兴趣在下降，

which usually hit the banks.

通常会打击银行。

But reduced economic activity, just like 2008.

但经济活动减少了，就像2008年一样。

The banks were hit very badly.

银行受到严重打击。

So the banks are going to be hit.

因此，银行将受到打击。

I don't see anything related to defense spending being hit.

我看不到与国防开支有关的任何事情。

I don't see any impact on defense contractors.

我认为对国防承包商没有任何影响。

It's kind of trying to think about industries

这是一种考虑行业的尝试

that come to mind, about what will and will not be hit.

我想到的是什么会被打击，什么将不会被打击。

At MIT, by the way, we are starting--

顺便说一下，在麻省理工学院，我们开始-

starting, already making plans for what happens if we have to start having students at home

开始，已经在计划如果我们要开始让学生在家会发生什么

and having teaching from home and having moved a lot

在家里教书，搬了很多东西

of our activities to online.

我们的在线活动。

We already canceled several conferences and several trips.

我们已经取消了几次会议和几次旅行。

So we are acting in the same way that most companies are acting.

因此，我们的行为方式与大多数公司的行为方式相同。

And nonessential travel is being curtailed.

并且减少了不必要的旅行。

Student travel in particular is being curtailed

尤其是学生旅行受到限制

while making plans to continue business

在制定继续业务的计划时

by continuing our research activity and teaching

通过继续我们的研究活动和教学

activity online and from home.

在线和在家活动。

We're doing what everybody else is doing.

我们正在做其他人正在做的事情。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: This is where our experience in the MicroMasters online digital learning is coming into action.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：这就是我们在微商在线数字学习方面的经验开始发挥作用的地方。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Absolutely, as it turns out,

YOSSI SHEFFI：事实证明，

the Center for Transportation and Logistics,

运输和物流中心

who led MIT in MicroMasters and online learning,

带领麻省理工学院的MicroMasters和在线学习，

is very well positioned for this.

对此非常有利。

And, in fact, a lot of our experience

而且，事实上，我们的很多经验

now is shared with the rest of MIT

现在与MIT的其他成员共享

in order to help the institution do it wherever it can.

为了帮助该机构在任何可能的地方做到这一点。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, absolutely.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，绝对。

08、对政府反应的看法

So we talked a little bit before about some government responses.

所以我们之前谈到了一些政府的反应。

And I was wondering what your perspective was

我想知道你的看法是什么

on as governments have made policies and plans

随着政府制定政策和计划

and announcements regarding the coronavirus and any lack

以及有关XXVirus和任何缺乏的公告

of transparency in those choices.

选择的透明度。

Has that created any issues?

这有什么问题吗？

YOSSI SHEFFI: I'm trying not to be political here,

YOSSI SHEFFI：我想在这里不要谈政治，

but, in every event, in every crisis,

但是，无论如何，在每一次危机中，

the number one thing, the most important thing,

第一件事，最重要的是

is to have straightforward, continuous information flow

拥有直接，连续的信息流

and believable information.

和可信的信息。

We now see in the United States, how should I say, a difference between what the White House is saying and what the Centers for Disease Control is saying.

我们现在看到，在美国，我应该怎么说，白宫说的和疾病控制中心说的有区别。

And I would urge people to listen to the Centers of Disease Control, rather than the White House, because, in many countries,

我要敦促人们倾听疾病控制中心的意见，而不是白宫的意见，因为在许多国家

particularly in the United States,

特别是在美国，

the response is being politicized.

回应正在被政治化。

And it's really unfortunate because, at this point,

真的很不幸，因为在这一点上，

it's all hands on deck.

一切都在甲板上。

And we all should be in it together.

我们大家都应该在一起。

The virus does not distinguish between Democrats

该virus 无法区分民主党人

and Republicans.

和共和党人。

So everybody is in the same boat.

所以每个人都在同一条船上。

And I hope people will think about it.

我希望人们能考虑一下。

And, whether Democrats are attacking the president

而且，民主党人是否在抨击总统

for not doing the right thing, or the president

因为没有做正确的事，或者是总统

does not agree with Center for--

对于以下方面与中心不同意-

you know, the experts on this, it

你知道，对此的专家，

has to stop to help the country.

必须停下来帮助该国。

And the United-- at this point, it's amazing that the United States and China kind of are in the same boat in terms of how people trust or not trust the government.

在这一点上，令人惊讶的是，美国和中国在人们如何信任或不信任政府方面处于同一条船上。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Yeah, no, very insightful.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：是的，非常有见识。

Coronavirus, unfortunately, is a great equalizer.

不幸的是，XXvirus是一个很好的均衡器。

We're all equally vulnerable.

我们都同样脆弱。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Absolutely.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So let me just launch another poll

亚历克西斯·贝特曼：所以让我发起另一个民意调查

09、对供应链专业人士有什么建议？

about how you guys are being impacted,

关于你们如何受到影响，

get some feedback on that.

得到一些反馈。

So we have many active supply chain professionals

所以我们有很多活跃的供应链专业人士

on the line right now.

现在就在线。

So do you have some advice for these professionals

那么您对这些专业人士有什么建议吗

who are struggling through this impact right now?

谁正在努力克服这种影响？

What are best practices for them in place

对他们来说最佳实践是什么

that they can use to manage this impact

他们可以用来管理这种影响

in this time of uncertainty?

在这个不确定的时期？

YOSSI SHEFFI: The good thing about the supply chain in general is we have been conducting business online for decades now.

YOSSI SHEFFI：总的来说，供应链的好处是我们几十年来一直在网上开展业务。

Globalization made sure that communication lines exist.

全球化确保了沟通渠道的存在。

And we can communicate with people,

我们可以与人沟通，

with both customers and suppliers, all over the world.

与世界各地的客户和供应商一起。

We should, however, think about the--

但是，我们应该考虑-

I don't know if you have a poll later about it--

我不知道您以后是否会对此进行投票-

but what should supply chain managers be doing.

但是供应链经理应该做什么。

So supply chain managers should be, most importantly,

因此，最重要的是，供应链经理应该

trying to think about suppliers.

试图考虑供应商。

Which suppliers are critical?

哪些供应商至关重要？

And which are vulnerable?

哪些脆弱？

Try to get as deep in the supply chain as they can.

尝试尽可能深入供应链。

Communicate with tier one supplier

与一级供应商沟通

who should communicate with tier two, tier three what's happening there.

谁应该与第二层，第三层进行沟通发生了什么。

You should start thinking about if they

您应该开始考虑他们是否

don't have enough parts.

没有足够的零件。

And, in many cases, parts go into many products.

而且，在许多情况下，零件会进入许多产品。

Which products should be built?

应该制造哪些产品？

And which should not?

而哪个不应该呢？

Which customers should be served?

应该为哪些客户提供服务？

And which should not?

而哪个不应该呢？

Which customer should be served at what percentage?

应该以哪个百分比为哪个客户提供服务？

How to calculate it?

如何计算呢？

Because customers will start-- for example,

因为客户将开始-例如，

if you decide that customers are getting only half of what they

如果您确定客户只获得他们一半的收益

ask for--

要求-

we'll make things simple--

我们将使事情变得简单

everybody will order double because they

每个人都会下令加倍，因为他们

understand your algorithm.

了解您的算法。

So what you have to look at right now

所以你现在要看的是

is look at their past orders and forecast

看他们过去的订单和预测

what their order should be like.

他们的订单应该是什么样的。

And base your decision on that.

然后根据您的决定。

So a lot of this preparation should

所以很多准备工作应该

be done now before something, before you get into trouble,

在遇到麻烦之前先做

because making decisions when the crisis is in its peak

因为当危机最严重时做出决定

usually does not make for good decisions.

通常不会做出好的决定。

There are lots of other things they should think about.

他们还应该考虑其他很多事情。

The decision-making, who makes the decision?

决策，谁来做决定？

Under what circumstances?

什么情况下

Let's say your CEO, your CFO, your head of supply chain

假设您的首席执行官，首席财务官，供应链负责人

falls sick, has to stay home.

生病，必须待在家里。

Decisions have to be made.

必须做出决定。

Who makes them?

谁做的？

Who has the authority to make what decisions?

谁有权做出什么决定？

All of these things should be explained and communicated now

所有这些事情现在应该解释和传达

before we get into a situation like Alexander Haig.

在我们陷入亚历山大·黑格之类的情况之前。

This is a very US-centric reference.

这是非常以美国为中心的参考。

When President Reagan was shot, Alexander Haig

当里根总统被枪杀时，亚历山大·黑格（Alexander Haig）

came online, came on TV, and said I'm in charge.

上线，上电视，并说我负责。

Turns out, according to the Constitution, he was not,

事实证明，根据《宪法》，他不是

but he tried.

但是他尝试了。

It's an example of what happens when

这是当

you start making decisions in a crisis situation

您开始在危机情况下做出决定

when people are not the best at thinking straight.

当人们不善于思考的时候。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Sure, well, that's good and timely advice for everyone on the line.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，随时为每个人提供良好和及时的建议。

10、还会影响多久？

So, given what we know today plus your past work

因此，鉴于我们今天所了解的以及您过去的工作

and ongoing work in resilience, has

和正在进行的弹性工作

this pandemic come to a peak?

这种流行病达到顶峰了吗？

And how long do you think supply chains are going to be disrupted?

您认为供应链会被打乱多久？

YOSSI SHEFFI: OK, I'm going to let--

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，我要让...

ALEXIS BATEMAN: This is an easy question.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：这是一个简单的问题。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Easy questions, yes.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的问题，是的。

You know, it's hard to forecast of course.

您知道，这当然很难预测。

Forecasts are-- we know the first rule of forecasting

预测是-我们知道预测的第一法则

is forecasts are always wrong.

预测总是错误的。

So this is going to be wrong as well.

因此，这也将是错误的。

But what the hell?

但是到底是什么？

I'll do it.

我会做的。

So, as I said, I expect Europe and the United States

所以，正如我所说，我希望欧洲和美国

to peak in terms--

达到峰值

not to peak, to start realizing in earnest a lack of parts

不要达到顶峰，开始真正意识到缺少零件

and material coming from China, coming from China,

和材料来自中国，来自中国，

coming from South Korea.

来自韩国

We've already seen a significant demand reduction just

我们已经看到大量的需求减少了

based on fear.

基于恐惧。

People don't feel like buying cars, going to the store.

人们不想买车，去商店。

Amazon announced now, because there's

亚马逊现在宣布，因为

a surge of online buying, that people are not

在线购买激增，人们不会

going to get all the stuff in two hours or the next day,

要在两个小时或第二天得到所有东西，

whatever their promise is, because the numbers are

不管他们的承诺是什么，因为数字是

so large that they can't really do it.

太大，以至于他们无法真正做到。

There's a surge in order.

订单激增。

At the same time, Amazon will start having shortages.

同时，亚马逊将开始短缺。

There are products that are not there.

有些产品不存在。

Right now, try to get a bottle of water on Amazon.

现在，尝试在亚马逊上买一瓶水。

Actually, you can't.

实际上，您不能。

As of yesterday, I tried.

从昨天开始，我尝试了。

You couldn't get a bottle of water.

你拿不到一瓶水。

They're out of water.

他们没水了。

People are starting to keep stashes

人们开始藏起来

at home of food and water.

家里的食物和水。

So some food, like cereal, that can last a long time,

所以一些食物，例如谷物，可以持续很长时间，

people are buying in large quantities.

人们正在大量购买。

But, anyway, the question was when

但是无论如何，问题是什么时候

do I expect shortages to start getting to a high level.

我期望短缺会开始达到很高的水平。

I don't say to peak because peak means that they'll

我不会说达到顶峰，因为顶峰意味着他们会

go down immediately afterwards.

之后立即下降。

I don't expect this to happen.

我不希望这种情况发生。

What happened is, right now, Chinese factories will go to--

现在发生的事情是，中国工厂将去-

for example, Foxconn announced that, by the end of March,

例如，富士康宣布，到三月底，

they'll be up to 70% or 80% of capacity.

它们将达到产量的70％或80％。

It's still not 100%, but they think

仍然不是100％，但他们认为

that, by the end of April, they will go to 100%.

到四月底，他们将达到100％。

That could be right, could be wishful thinking.

那可能是正确的，可能是一厢情愿的想法。

We just had-- last night, we had sudden and unexplained jump of cases in Wuhan, which we thought was going down already, significantly going down.

我们刚刚——昨晚，我们在XX突然发生了不明原因的案件，我们认为已经在下降，明显在下降。

In Wuhan and, of course, China, we just

在XX，当然还有中国，我们只是

had an unexplained jump.

发生了无法解释的跳跃。

So that's partly what spooked the market this morning.

因此，这部分是今天早上吓坏了市场的原因。

So, as I said, one of the problems

所以，正如我所说，问题之一

here we know so little about this particular pathogen,

在这里，我们对这种特殊的病原体知之甚少，

this particular virus.

这种特殊的virus。

And we cannot yet assume the behavior, but we know that,

我们还不能假设这种行为，但是我们知道，

investors from China, there will be a marked reduction

来自中国的投资者，将会明显减少

in the number of sales.

在销售数量上。

The number of sales coming to the United States

到美国的销售数量

starting mid-march, end of March,

从3月中旬开始，到3月底，

that's when we start getting hit.

那就是我们开始受到打击的时候。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：对，对。

It seems like there's still more to come so--

似乎还有更多的东西-

YOSSI SHEFFI: There's still more to come, absolutely.

YOSSI SHEFFI：绝对还有更多的事情要做。

11、对你的日常工作影响有多大？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: The poll seems to agree

ALEXIS BATEMAN：调查似乎同意

with that as well in terms of--

在以下方面-

YOSSI SHEFFI: What does the poll say?

YOSSI SHEFFI：民意测验怎么说？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So the question posed was is dealing with coronavirus impacting your daily duties significantly.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：所以我们提出的问题是处理XXvirus是否对你日常工作的影响很大。

So a quarter of you said yes, significantly.

因此，有四分之一的人说很大

33% said yes, a little.

33％的人说有一些。

Only 11% said no.

只有11％的人没有。

So it is kind of impacting everyone almost equally.

因此，这几乎对每个人都产生了相同的影响。

And then 31% said no, but I think it will soon.

然后31％的人档期没有，但我认为很快会产生影响。

So there are some being impacted now,

所以现在有些影响了

but the remaining will likely be impacted in the near future.

但其余的可能会在不久的将来受到影响。

12、公司现在可以做什么以更好地适应未来？

All right, so let's go on to the future questions.

好的，让我们继续讨论未来的问题。

So I'll ask one more of my own question,

所以我再问一个自己的问题，

and then we will open it up for a few audience questions.

然后我们将它开放给一些观众问题。

We're only going to have a little bit of time,

我们只剩下一点时间

but, if you want to ask a question,

但是，如果您想提一个问题，

make sure to get your question in there now.

确保现在就提出您的问题。

So, with this disruption ongoing and with

因此，随着这种破坏的持续进行，

the imperative to prepare for future disruptions,

必须为将来的破坏做准备，

what can companies do now to better adapt for the future?

公司现在可以做什么以更好地适应未来？

YOSSI SHEFFI: It's too late now, by and large.

YOSSI SHEFFI：总的来说，现在为时已晚。

Now that the disruption is in full force

现在破坏已经全面展开

or getting ready to be in full force,

或准备全力以赴，

there's no time to move manufacturing out of China.

没有时间将制造业转移出中国。

And, by the way, there's a question.

而且，还有一个问题。

Where would you move it?

你会把它移到哪里？

You move it to the next place that's going to be hit.

您将其移至将要命中的下一个位置。

You move it to Vietnam, to Indonesia, to South Korea.

您将其移至越南，印度尼西亚，韩国。

It's not clear where to move it.

目前尚不清楚将其移动到何处。

It is-- what is clear is that one may want to do--

很明显，您可能想做的是

to have multiple suppliers in different parts of the world.

在世界各地拥有多个供应商。

So, at least, it doesn't hit at the same time.

因此，至少不会同时击中它。

And, maybe by the time that it hits Mexico and Latin America--

而且，也许在它席卷墨西哥和拉丁美洲时-

and it will--

它将-

China is getting back on line.

中国正在恢复联系。

So you have some type of equilibrium there.

因此，那里有某种均衡。

So that's the best that I think that you can do.

因此，这是我认为您可以做到的最好的做法。

In the long run, moving manufacturing out of China,

从长远来看，将制造业转移出中国，

yeah, in general, you want-- it's not moving

是的，总的来说，您想要的-它没有移动

manufacturing out of China.

制造出中国。

It's having manufacturing elsewhere.

它在其他地方有制造。

The problem with moving manufacturing out of China

制造业转移出中国的问题

is that we've become too dependent on China.

是我们太依赖中国了。

China started-- for products like garments

中国开始了-针对服装等产品

that are basically based on low labor costs, yeah,

基本上是基于较低的劳动力成本，是的，

you can move them to Vietnam.

您可以将它们移至越南。

You can move it elsewhere.

您可以将其移动到其他位置。

But, for high-tech products, automotive parts,

但是，对于高科技产品，汽车零件，

Chinese are simply too good.

中国真是太好了。

They're innovative.

他们是创新的。

They're good.

很好

It's not easy to find the same level of supplier capability

找到同等水平的供应商能力并不容易

elsewhere.

别处。

As an example, who would have even thought

例如，谁会想到

that anybody can build a hospital in 10 days?

任何人都可以在10天内建立医院？

I mean, it just shows the level of capability in China

我的意思是，这只是表明中国的能力水平

that actually doesn't exist anywhere in the world.

实际上在世界任何地方都不存在。

So it's not clear that one can move out of China.

因此，不清楚是否可以搬出中国。

It's a long term, and I would say

这是一个长期的过程，我会说

balancing is more realistic than moving out of China.

平衡比迁出中国更为现实。

And there are certain things that one

在某些事情上

should do like better visibility deeper into your supplier,

应该更深入地了解供应商，

sure, always something that's important.

当然，总是重要的事情。

And investing in-- this is becoming easier

进行投资-这变得越来越容易

to do with IoT and lots of new products

与物联网和许多新产品有关

that are coming on line that allow companies to have better visibility and understand also the importance of better visibility.

即将上线，这将使公司有更好的可视性，并理解更好的可视性的重要性。

And the importance of better visibility in a crisis

在危机中提高可视性的重要性

is simply having an earlier warning.

只是提前发出警告。

So companies should map their supply chain,

因此，公司应绘制其供应链图，

should understand not only where the headquarters-- you know,

不仅应该了解总部在哪里-你知道，

when you run your SAP system, and you look at the supplier

当您运行SAP系统并查看供应商时

address, it will give you the headquarter address

地址，它将为您提供总部地址

because that's where you send the check.

因为那是您发送支票的地方。

That's not the issue for supply chain professionals.

对于供应链专业人员而言，这不是问题。

You need to know where the plants are of the supplier.

您需要知道供应商的工厂在哪里。

So, if something comes up in some city

因此，如果某个城市出现了问题

or area around the world, you know what is being affected.

或世界各地，您知道受到什么影响。

You should know what is made there.

您应该知道那里做了什么。

What products are made there that impact your product

那里生产的哪些产品会影响您的产品

and your customers?

和你的顾客？

So mapping the supply chain at that level is also something that takes time.

因此，在这个层次上绘制供应链图也是需要时间的。

The good thing is there are now several commercial suppliers of these kind of mapping capabilities that can help you do it, still something that takes time,takes work, but it's imperative to make sure that you can deal better with the next disruption.

好的一面是现在有好几家具有这种映射功能的商业供应商可以帮助您完成这项工作，这仍然需要时间和工作，但必须确保您能够更好地应对下一次中断。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, absolutely.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，绝对。

Good advice to think about for now

现在要考虑的好建议

and continuing in the future.

并在未来继续。

So I just released one more poll about how you see your company as adapting.

所以我又发布了一个关于你如何看待你的公司适应环境的民意测验

So take a minute to fill out that poll.

因此，请花一点时间填写该调查。

And now we're going to dive into a few questions.

现在，我们将深入探讨几个问题。

We crowd-sourced some that came in early, and then I'll start pulling from the list for the next 10 to 15 minutes.

我们从人群中收集了一些早期的信息，然后我将在接下来的10到15分钟内从列表中抽出来。

And then we'll need to sign off.

然后我们需要退出。

13、你如何看待反全球化在近期和未来的演变或发展？

But one of the quick questions here will be, given the macro-- and, trying to stay as apolitical as possible,but, obviously, this is a politically loaded question--given the macro environment of coronavirus,

但这里的一个快速问题是，考虑到宏观因素——并且，尽量保持非政治性，但是，显然，这是一个政治问题——考虑到XXvirus的宏观环境，

nationalistic policies, how do you see anti-globalization evolving or developing in the near term and future?

民族主义政策，你如何看待反全球化在近期和未来的演变或发展？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Yeah, this is problematic of course.

YOSSI SHEFFI：是的，这当然是有问题的。

It's interesting that, in the US,

有趣的是，在美国，

the two extreme parties, both Trump on the other side

两个极端政党，都在特朗普的另一边

and Bernie Sanders, for those who follow US politics,

和伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders），对于那些追随美国政治的人来说，

Bernie Sanders on the far left, while many

最左边的伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）

of Trump's supporters on the far right,

最右边的特朗普支持者

the only thing they agree on is they're

他们唯一同意的是

both anti-globalization.

反全球化。

They both want to pull the US out of any engagement in the world, which is nuts.

他们都想把美国从世界上的任何接触中拉出来，这简直是胡说八道。

I mean, that's a technical term.

我的意思是，这是一个技术术语。

I mean, it will lead to a reduction

我的意思是，这将导致减少

in the standard of living in the US and throughout.

符合美国乃至整个美国的生活水平。

It just cannot-- it makes no sense whatsoever.

它根本不能-毫无意义。

In fact, the coronavirus, I made a statement

其实XXvirus我做了一个声明

before about the coronavirus doesn't

之前关于XX病毒没有

distinguish between Democrat and Republican.

区分民主党人和共和党人。

It also doesn't distinguish between Chinese and Americans.

它还没有区分中国人和美国人。

It doesn't distinguish between Vietnamese and Russian.

越南人和俄罗斯人没有区别。

It's a worldwide phenomena, and the world

这是世界范围的现象，世界

has to act together on this.

必须对此采取共同行动。

And, in this sense, let me just give China its dues.

从这个意义上说，让我来为中国付出代价。

They identified the structure, the DNA structure,

他们确定了结构，DNA结构，

of the virus early and distributed it

早期感染并分发

around the world.

世界各地。

This is, in fact, what the world is using now.

实际上，这就是当今世界正在使用的东西。

They're are actually three tests.

他们实际上是三个测试。

There are DNA, RNA, and protein tests

有DNA，RNA和蛋白质测试

that are used to validate that somebody has the virus.

用于验证某人是否感染了病毒。

Well, the signature of the virus came from China.

好吧，该病毒的特征来自中国。

They very quickly identified and informed the world around it.

他们很快发现并通知了周围的世界。

So it's a worldwide phenomenon that needs--

因此，这是一种全球性的现象，需要-

I'm not saying Chinese did everything better.

我并不是说中国人都做得很好。

They didn't allow the World Health Organization

他们不允许世界卫生组织

in right away and other things, but they did many things right.

马上进行其他事情，但是他们做了很多正确的事情。

The US government does many things right and quite a few things wrong

美国政府做了很多对的事，也做了很多错的事

So you try to get something when government--

所以当政府-

my guess is many governments in Europe

我的猜测是欧洲许多政府

are better positioned for this because there's

对此有更好的定位，因为

more trust in government in general

总体上对政府的信任度更高

than in the US in general.

相比美国。

So places where there's trust in government,

所以在信任政府的地方

in this particular crisis, are better equipped

在这场特殊的危机中，装备更好

to fight, to fight the virus.

战斗，抵抗Virus。

14、会改变你公司未来在供应链中的运作方式吗？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, so let's take a quick look at our poll that we just ran, which is how do you think--

ALEXIS BATEMAN：所以让我们来看看我们刚刚进行的民意调查，你是怎么想的

do you think the disruptions could change how your company operates in the supply chain in the future?

你认为这些中断会改变你公司未来在供应链中的运作方式吗？

And so, by and large, everyone said having greater risk management protocols in place, 63% out of a multi-select question, more visibility to deeper tier suppliers, as Yossi jus tmentioned.

因此，总的来说，每个人都说，有更大的风险管理协议，63%的问题是多选择的，更深入的层次供应商的可见性，正如Yossi所说。

Another one would be more remote work opportunities so kind  of trialing those, in terms of whether that's an opportunity or whether that's a possibility.

另一个可能是更遥远的工作机会，所以可以分为三类，无论是机会还是可能性。

And then the next highest will be overall travel reduction

其次是整体旅行减少

may be an impact or a future scenario out of this, so

可能是影响或未来的情况，所以

some interesting results there.

一些有趣的结果。

15、这场危机是否会为某些行业带来机遇？

So I wanted to pull a question I think is

所以我想提出一个我认为是的问题

really interesting from Randy.

兰迪真的很有趣。

He asks, will this crisis be an opportunity for some industries

他问，这场危机是否会为某些行业带来机遇

such as online retailing?

例如在线零售？

You mentioned that a little bit, not exposed to human interaction or more automation and manufacturing, like robots replacing labor.

你刚才提到了一点，没有接触到人与人之间的互动或者更多的自动化和制造，就像机器人取代了劳动力。

YOSSI SHEFFI: The answer is yes.

YOSSI SHEFFI：答案是肯定的。

Again, I'm looking at what Israel is doing.

同样，我正在看以色列在做什么。

The way they isolate people is the following.

他们隔离人的方式如下。

The caretakers are not getting into the same room

看护人不在同一个房间

with a patient.

和病人在一起。

The patients are totally instrumented.

患者完全被仪器化了。

They're in bed.

他们在床上。

They are sending every few seconds the vital signs through computers.

他们每隔几秒钟发送一次生命体征通过计算机。

People who just suspect that they have it get an instrument they can put under their mattress that tests their breathing because this virus affects the lungs.

那些怀疑自己有这种病毒的人会得到一个可以放在床垫下测试自己呼吸的仪器，因为这种Virus会影响肺部。

So it sends messages if, during night, even you

因此，即使在晚上，即使您

don't know it, at night, your breathing is not normal.

不知道，在晚上，你的呼吸不正常。

So it sends, again, an alert.

因此，它再次发送警报。

And this is everyone.

这就是每个人。

People can just get it because they suspect

人们可以得到它，因为他们怀疑

that they have the virus.

他们有virus。

So, going back to the question, what--

所以，回到问题上，什么-

ALEXIS BATEMAN: It says the industries that will be--

ALEXIS BATEMAN：该行业将-

YOSSI SHEFFI: Ah, OK, so you have--

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，所以您有-

so I see in Israel several robotics

所以我在以色列看到了几种机器人

companies are doing very well.

公司做得很好。

I see a lot of companies who manufacture

我看到很多公司制造

sensors doing very well.

传感器做得很好。

In terms of processes, after working at home,

就流程而言，在家工作后，

a lot of people may like it, not everybody,

很多人可能会喜欢，而不是所有人，

but it will allow people to work remotely.

但它可以使人们远程工作。

We at CTL have several of our professionals working remotely.

在CTL，我们有几位远程专业人员。

In fact, Alexis works out of California.

实际上，Alexis在加利福尼亚以外的地方工作。

We have several other people who work remotely because,

我们还有其他几个远程工作的人，因为，

in this day and age, you really don't have to be face to face.

在这个时代，您真的不必面对面。

Maybe there has to be a period when you have to be face

也许有一段时间你必须面对

to face, but, after your colleagues and the project,

面，但是，在您的同事和项目之后，

more and more people will start working remotely.

越来越多的人将开始远程工作。

We will have better software, as Zoom is doing very well now.

我们将拥有更好的软件，因为Zoom如今表现出色。

Companies who provide the capabilities to work this way

提供以这种方式工作的能力的公司

are doing very well.

做得很好。

So we'll have more of that.

因此，我们将拥有更多。

Other than that, I try to think about there'll

除此之外，我尝试考虑

be another push or even greater push for IoT,

是物联网的又一推动甚至更大的推动，

for Internet of Things, those sensors and to create

用于物联网，这些传感器并创建

long-term visibility, mapping of supply chains,

长期可见性，供应链映射，

understanding where your stuff is coming from.

了解您的东西来自哪里。

Companies are going to be even better prepared

公司将作更好的准备

for the next one.

下一个。

I'm trying to think.

我在想。

That's about it.

就是这样

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So, for some, at least,

ALEXIS BATEMAN：因此，至少对于某些人来说，

the outlook is slightly positive.

前景是积极的。

So we can take some glimmers of hope.

这样我们就可以看到一线希望。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Sure, the outlook is slightly positive.

YOSSI SHEFFI：当然，前景是乐观的。

It's you know--

你知道-

16、为什么供应链对此反应如此之晚？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So another question that Etisham is asking is, why are supply chains reacting so late to this?

ALEXIS BATEMAN：因此，Etisham提出的另一个问题是，为什么供应链对此反应如此之晚？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Great question.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很好的问题。

Because, when everything is said and done, there's a lot more said than done.

因为，当每件事都说了又做了，说的比做的多得多。

People have been talking of-- what happens with crisis is really, in some sense, unfortunate.

人们一直在谈论——在某种意义上，危机的后果确实是不幸的。

When the crisis happens, people get all excited and commit to doing this, that, and the other thing.

当危机发生时，人们都会很兴奋，并致力于做这个，那个，还有其他的事情。

And then the crisis is over.

危机结束了。

And, in most companies, there's no redundancy in staff.

而且，在大多数公司中，没有多余的员工。

So people have to do--

所以人们必须-

to work a lot.

工作很多。

And people are always under pressure

人们总是承受压力

to solve the day-to-day issue, the day-to-day problem.

解决日常问题，日常问题。

And long-term issues are forgotten, simply left

遗忘了长期的问题

by the wayside, because, suddenly, you have to answer to this customer.

顺便说一下，因为，突然之间，你必须回答这个客户的问题。

You have this problem in production.

您在生产中遇到此问题。

You have this type of his type of shipment stuck in some port.

你把这种类型的货物卡在某个港口了。

So that's where you go right back to.

这就是您要回到的地方。

And, in fact, when I'm talking to boards,

而且，实际上，当我与董事会对话时，

I always tell them it's their responsibility.

我总是告诉他们这是他们的责任。

It's the board of directors because even the CEO has to deal with the day to day in many cases,

这是董事会，因为在很多情况下，即使是首席执行官也必须每天处理，

but board of directors have to make sure

但董事会必须确保

that there's strategic planning going on almost continuously

几乎持续进行战略计划

and looking at what is this that--

看看这是什么-

what are the long-term issues?

长期的问题是什么？

And what are the even plans?

甚至有什么计划？

What at the HR bonus plans or enumeration plans

人力资源奖金计划或列举计划有什么用

that take into account long-term thinking?

考虑到长期思考？

A lot have been written about the fact that public companies are living quarter to quarter and managing quarter to quarter.

关于上市公司按季度生存和按季度管理的事实，已经有很多报道。

And this is the enemy of long-term thinking,

这是长期思考的敌人，

of trying to solve the next coronavirus, Fukushima, SARS,

试图解决下一个XXvirus，福岛，SARS的问题，

whatever it is, Syrian refugees.

无论是叙利亚难民。

There are problems all over the world.

世界各地都有问题。

And some of them we can predict.

我们可以预测其中的一些。

Some of them we don't.

其中一些我们没有。

But there are general rules of having emergency operations center, having communication, having visibility, having decision-making authority, prioritize customer, understand who our suppliers are.

但是有一些一般的规则，有紧急行动中心，有沟通，有可见性，有决策权，优先考虑客户，了解我们的供应商是谁。

All of these issues work in every disruption.

所有这些问题在每次破坏中都起作用。

So all of this should be there and ready to unveil.

因此，所有这些都应该存在并准备揭晓。

Many companies, like Cisco I think,

我认为许多公司，例如思科，

has what they call playbooks.

有他们所谓的剧本。

They have 18 playbooks.

他们有18本剧本。

Or, for several types of disruptions,

或者，对于几种类型的中断，

they have a playbook on what to do in this case.

他们有一本关于在这种情况下该怎么做的书。

More and more companies should have playbooks.

越来越多的公司应该拥有剧本。

And the issue is most large companies by now have them.

现在的问题是大多数大公司都拥有它们。

They can be better, of course, but most large companies have them.

当然，他们可以做得更好，但大多数大公司都有。

The problem is the small companies,

问题是小公司，

which are part of the ecosystem of these large companies, the small suppliers who usually don't have the capacity to develop these plans.

它们是这些大公司生态系统的一部分，这些小供应商通常没有能力制定这些计划。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Great, very insightful.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：很好，很有见识。

So a few questions I saw asking about Yossi's research

我看到了几个有关Yossi研究的问题

that he did with our CTL partners,

他与我们的CTL合作伙伴一起做的，

so, after you log out of this, we'll actually have links to all of the things he's already written

所以，在你注销之后，我们会有他已经写过的所有东西的链接

and some of his interviews he has

还有他的一些采访

done with Bloomberg and CNBC.

与彭博社和CNBC合作。

So be sure to watch those because he discusses some

所以一定要注意那些，因为他讨论了一些

of those results there as well.

这些结果也在那里。

17、缺货时如何处理客户关系

And so I think we have time for one more question.

因此，我认为我们还有时间再提出一个问题。

So I saw it scattered a couple times throughout this, and now I can't find it.

所以我看到它散落了几次，现在我找不到了

But, customer prioritization, so,

但是，客户优先级如此

when there's not enough product, how do you deal with the customers, while maintaining that relationship?

当没有足够的产品，你如何处理客户，同时保持这种关系？

YOSSI SHEFFI: OK, the simple--

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，简单-

by the way, many question have simple answers,

顺便说一下，许多问题都有简单的答案，

and it's usually wrong.

这通常是错误的。

And the simple answer is you do it by margins.

而简单的答案就是您可以做到这一点。

You know, customer margins are driving.

您知道，客户利润在增长。

That's usually wrong, and most people

通常这是错误的，大多数人

know that it's wrong because, for example,

知道这是错误的，例如，

if you just got your first order for Walmart,

如果您刚收到沃尔玛的第一笔订单，

you really, even though it's a small part right now,

你真的，即使现在只是一小部分，

Walmart can make you huge.

沃尔玛可以使您变得庞大。

So you don't want to not serve Walmart.

因此，您不想不为沃尔玛服务。

So you have to think about customer vulnerability.

因此，您必须考虑客户漏洞。

We even found cases when companies

我们甚至发现了一些案例

served small customers, rather than big customers,

服务于小客户而不是大客户，

because they thought that the small customer depended on them

因为他们认为小客户依赖于他们

and may go out of business if they don't serve them,

如果他们不为他们服务，可能会倒闭，

while big customers have a broader range of products

大客户拥有更多产品

and may survive if they get only 50% of the amount that they order.

如果他们只拿到订单金额的50%，他们可能会活下来。

All of these consideration, consideration of equity, you don't want to be seen as favoring one customer over another because the customer who was not favored is going to get back at you later on when they can.

所有这些考虑，对权益的考虑，你不想被看作是对一个客户的偏爱，因为不受青睐的客户稍后会在可能的时候报复你。

Some companies did, when there were shortages, for example,

例如，有些公司这样做是在短缺的时候，

after the Tallinn floods, some companies did auctions.

塔林洪灾之后，一些公司进行了拍卖。

Every economist will tell you that auctions are actually the best mechanism because you allocate the parts to the person who needs it most.

每个经济学家都会告诉你，拍卖实际上是最好的机制，因为你把部分分配给最需要的人。

However, auction gets the prices way up when there's a shortage.

但是，在短缺的情况下，拍卖会使价格上涨。

And companies look at it as you are actually using the--you're profiteering.

公司把它看作是你在利用——你在牟取暴利。

You are raising your profit in time when we are all in trouble.

当我们都陷入困境时，你正在及时提高你的利润

So you ruin customer relationships.

因此，您破坏了客户关系。

You have to think about all of these things.

您必须考虑所有这些事情。

How do you decide which customer to serve

您如何决定服务哪个客户

and which customers not to serve?

哪些客户不服务？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, no, very important to think about all those variations.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：是的，考虑所有这些变化是非常重要的。

So we have tons of questions we're not going to be able to get to today, but we are going to be opening a chat.

所以我们有很多问题今天无法回答，但是我们要开始聊天。

So some of our team from the MicroMasters and others around the center will be trying to tackle some of your questions.

因此，我们的一些小组，从微观和其他围绕中心将试图解决你的一些问题。

18、这种影响如何突出了供应链专业人员的作用？

So, one final question before we sign off today,

所以，在我们今天结束之前的最后一个问题是，

how has this impact highlighted the role of the supply chain professional?

这种影响如何突出了供应链专业人员的作用？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Yeah, it reminds me of a colleague of mine in civil engineering department whose research is on earthquakes.

YOSSI SHEFFI：是的，这让我想起我在土木工程系的一位同事，他的研究方向是地震。

And, every time there's an earthquake, he's in the news,

而且，每次发生地震时，他都会成为新闻

and he's you know--

他是你知道的

so, right now, there's an earthquake.

所以，现在发生了地震。

We look at the shortages, and people are looking at the procurement professional and manufacturing professional, distribution professionals.

我们看短缺，人们看采购专业和制造专业，分销专业。

What do we do in case?

万一该怎么办？

What do we do already?

我们已经做什么了？

We can't get our stuff out of China.

我们不能将东西运出中国。

Find us alternate suppliers.

查找我们替代供应商。

Well, if you'd before--

好吧，如果您以前曾想过-

if you had before some alternate suppliers ready,

如果您已经准备好一些备用供应商，

and you tested them, and you know the quality,

您测试了它们，并且知道质量，

you're in better shape than just trying

您的状态比尝试更好

how to find who can make a certain part when, by the way,

顺便说一句，如何找到谁可以做出决定

all your competitors are in the same boat.

您所有的竞争对手都在同一条船上。

They're all jumping on the one supplier

他们都跳上了一个供应商

who can be an alternative.

谁可以替代。

And they cannot supply everything.

他们无法提供一切。

So he who is the better prepared is better prepared.

因此，准备得更好的人就会准备得更好。

And, if you're doing this at the last minute,

而且，如果您在最后一刻这样做，

it doesn't work usually.

它通常不起作用。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, all right,

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，好的，

19、结束语

thank you so much, Yossi, for your time.

Yossi，非常感谢您的宝贵时间。

This has been really insightful.

这真的很有见地。

And I hope this has been helpful for all of you,

我希望这对你们所有人都有帮助，

bringing Yossi's wisdom today.

今天带来了Yossi的智慧。

And, like I said, keep in touch.

并且，正如我所说，保持联系。

We'll be answering questions as we go.

我们将继续回答问题。

Be sure to reference all the materials Yossi is putting out

请务必参考Yossi推出的所有材料

there right now to be able to support everyone.

现在可以为所有人提供支持。

And best of luck.

祝你好运。

Thank you.

谢谢。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Thank you very much.

YOSSI SHEFFI：非常感谢。

See you all.

大家再见。